Aaron McKenna vs Liam Smith Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Aaron McKenna vs Liam Smith Preview April 26th, 2025

Former WBO Jr Middleweight Champ Liam Smith of Liverpool, England is back in action this Saturday, April 26th to take on unbeaten Aaron McKenna of Ireland. The 12-round middleweight bout from London is on the undercard of the Conor benn vs Chris Eubank Jr tilt and can be seen live in the UK and Ireland on Sky Sports Box Office with most other nations including the UK as well, seeing it on DAZN pay-per-view. Smith hasn’t fought since September, 2023 when he was stopped in the 10th round by Chris Eubank Jr in their rematch. The two first fought eight months earlier with Smith halting Eubank in the fourth round. McKenna’s last fight resulted in a 10th-round TKO over Jeovanny Estela.

McKenna vs Smith Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).

  • Liam Smith +130
  • Aaron McKenna -160

My Pick

The 25-year-old McKenna, who fights out of Los Angeles, California, makes the ring walk with a perfect mark of 19-0 with 10 Ko’s and has boxed 94 rounds since making his pro debut in 2017. He enjoyed an extensive amateur career in which he reportedly won eight national championships and lost just nine of 161 bouts. He also captured a gold medal at the European Schoolboy Championships. He has average power as 52.6 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage, including his last two, but he has gone the distance in five of his past eight contests.

McKenna, who measures 6-feet-1-inch tall with a 75-inch reach, won the vacant WBC Youth Middleweight Title in 2021 with an eight-round unanimous decision over Carlos Gallego Montijo and added the vacant WBC International Middleweight Belt in 2023 via a 10-round unanimous decision over Uisma Lima. He’ll be taking a huge leap in class against Smith this weekend as his biggest wins have been against David Benitez, Mickey Ellison, Gabor Gorbics and Jordan Grant.

Liam ‘Beefy’ Smith is now 36 years old and won the vacant WBO Junior Middleweight Title against John Thompson via a seventh-round TKO in October, 2015 and defended it by stopping fellow Brit Jimmy Kelly in the seventh round two months later. He then defended against Predrag Radosevic by a second-round stoppage in June, 2016. However, he lost the title three months later when Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez stopped him in the ninth round.

Smith is also a former British and Commonwealth Champion who has won a couple other belts such as the WBO Inter-Continental and WBA International Super Welterweight Titles. He also became the first world champion to hail from Liverpool in 22 years when he won the world WBO crown. Since losing his belt to Alvarez he’s also won two fights against Liam Williams as well as stopping Sam Eggington, Anthony Fowler, Jessie Vargas and Mario Lozano and decisioned Roberto Garcia and Marian Cazacu.

In that span, Smith also had a shot at regaining the WBO Title in 2018 when he lost a unanimous decision to Jaime Munguia. He also fought for the vacant WBO International Super Welterweight Title in Russia in 2021 against Magomed Kurbanov but dropped a controversial unanimous decision. His last two outing were the stoppage win and loss against Eubank Jr and this means he now carries around a record of 33-4-1 with 20 Ko’s. His lone draw was a four-round affair with Terry Carruthers in 2010.

Smith is on the short side for a middleweight at just over 5-feet-9-inches tall with a reported 69-inch reach, so he gives up 3.5-inches in height to McKenna and six inches in reach. He made his pro debut back in 2008 after a fine amateur career and now has 242 rounds under his belt since then. Smith possesses above-average average power in his fists as 60.6 per cent of his victories have been by stoppage including his last four. However he’s also been stopped twice himself.

Prediction…

This is a tough call since Smith is 36 years old, gives up height and reach and has been out of the ring for 18 months. However he has plenty of experience, especially against top-class opposition. McKenna is unbeaten with average power and an excellent amateur career and boxing skills. He’s either stepping into the deep end too quickly here or he’s going to pass this stiff test with flying colours if Smith’s best days are behind him now. McKenna is the slight betting favourite but he’s going to need to prove himself in the ring. This could go either way but McKenna is 11 years younger and if he utilizes his size advantage and fights to his potential he should be able to do enough to remain unbeaten via a win or draw.

McKenna is younger, bigger and hungrier.

Play: McKenna -160 @ BetOnline.ag

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.


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