Subriel Matias vs Gabriel Valenzuela Preview March 1st, 2025
Former IBF Junior Welterweight Champion Subriel Matias of Puerto Rico is back in the ring this Saturday, March 1st when he takes on Mexico’s Gabriel Valenzuela. The 12-round IBF Junior Welterweight Eliminator from Puerto Rico, can be seen live in most nations on DAZN. Matias won the vacant title in February, 2023 when he stopped Jeremias Ponce of Argentina after the fifth round of a slugfest and then defended it against Shohjahon Ergashev in November by stopping him after the sixth round. However he lost the belt to Liam Paro last June when he dropped a unanimous decision at home in Puerto Rico. He then bounced back with a second-round TKO over Roberto Ramirez in his last outing in November. Valenzuela’s last fight resulted in an eight-round unanimous decision over Jesus Lopez Perez in October.
Matias vs Valenzuela Betting Odds
Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).
- Gabriel Valenzuela +325
- Subriel Matias -450
My Pick
The 32-year-old Matias climbs into the ring with an impressive record of 21-2 with all 21 wins coming by KO, which means he’s got a current knockout ratio of 91.3 per cent with 100 per cent of his wins coming by stoppage. He’s boxed 110 rounds since turning pro in 2016 following his amateur career and stands 5-feet-8-inches tall with a 71-inch reach. The first pro defeat on Matias’ record came at the hands of Petros Ananyan in 2020 via a close 10-round unanimous decision after Matias was dropped in the seventh round.
He avenged that defeat two years later by stopping Ananyan in the ninth round. Matias’ biggest wins have been against Shohjahon Ergashev, Jeremias Ponce, Patrick Lopez, Adrian Estrella, Breidis Prescott, Fernando Saucedo, Wilberth Lopez, Maxim Dadashev, Malik Hawkins and Batyrzhan Jukembayev. Sadly, Dadashev passed away at the age of 28 after sustaining injuries in the bout with Matias. He’s a dangerous boxer who simply lets his hands go until his opponent is counted out, or quits. However he took Liam Paro too lightly last June and paid for it with his title when dropping a unanimous decision.
The 30-year-old Valenzuela makes the ring walk with a mark of 30-3-1 with 17 Ko’s and has fought 182 rounds since making his pro debut in 2015. At 5-feet-10-inches tall with a 73-inch reach, he has a two-inch edge in both height and reach over Matias. As far as power is concerned, Valenzuela comes nowhere close to matching Matias as 56.7 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage and he’s gone the distance in four of his past six contests.
The first loss in Valenzuela’s career came at the hands of Luis Ramos by fourth-round TKO in 2016 and he lost his very next fight when he dropped a six-round unanimous decision to William Zepeda. He didn’t lose again until 2022 when he lost a close 12-round unanimous decision to Montana Love by scores of 114-112 across the board in a shot at the IBF North American Super Lightweight Title. Valenzuela was dropped in the first round of that tilt while he returned the favour by decking Love in the second stanza.
The lone draw on Valenzuela’s record is an eight-round affair with Jessie Wilcox in 2018. His biggest win came in 2022 when he beat Robbie Davies Jr via a 10-round majority decision for the vacant IBF Inter-Continental Super Lightweight Belt. He also stopped Nery Saguilan in four rounds in 2019 for the vacant WBC Fecarbox Crown and has wins over Yves Ulysse Jr, Steve Spark, Yeis Gabriel Solano, Juan Jiminez and Jesus Cuadro.
Prediction…
Matias didn’t take Paro seriously last year as he wasted half his energy on his ring walk and dancing in the ring before the fight. He appeared to have learned his lesson though by stopping Roberto Ramirez in his last fight. At his best, Matias has an extremely high work rate but isn’t the hardest target to hit and has been dropped before so there is some hope for Valenzuela. However, Matias typically overwhelms his opponents from the start to finish of most rounds and has the power to turn a fight around with a single punch. This should an entertaining and a tough fight but I believe Matias will win it and likely by stoppage thanks to his volume punching, athleticism and power.
All of Matias’ 21 wins have been by stoppage.
Play: Matias -450 @ BetOnline.ag
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Gabriel Valenzuela betting • Subriel Matias betting