I believe NFL betting can be one of the best ways for football fans to enjoy their sport and potentially win some money along the way, as long as they are prepared to keep some basic strategies in mind. With this being said, sports betting is one of the most unpredictable pastimes available. Similar to the players on the field, as NFL bettors we can only do our best in preparation and knowledge and let the proverbial chips fall where they may. In creating this reference for NFL bettors, I am going largely from the strategies and ideas that work for me- if you have an entirely different set of betting ideas and it works then all the power to you. Let’s get into my top six NFL betting tips that will hopefully have you smiling at the end of every game.
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#1 Power Rankings
Always check reputable power rankings to see where teams are placed. In looking at a particular NFL matchup we need to understand where both teams rank first as a general unit or whole entity at that particular point in time. Teams rarely jump or drop more than five positions on power rankings which are important in giving us a strong indication of how a team has played in the past and how we can likely expect them to play in the future. Power rankings are a useful method of getting a quick overall view of teams that encompasses a lot of factors. Simply stated, although it does happen in specific (and somewhat predictable situations) teams ranked at the bottom are less likely to beat those at the top-at least straight up.
#2 Research Each Teams Opponents
Study the opposition that particular teams have faced in the past and how they have fared against those teams. Doing this will give us an accurate picture of the true strength of any given team we are considering placing a wager on. A team may have a record of 5 wins and 0 losses but if their opposition has been the worst teams in the league we can begin to see their “perfect record” with better understanding. Along with this we can determine if a team does particularly well on the road or at home and how this may impact their upcoming matchup.
#3 Injuries
Become familiar with injuries to any NFL team you are considering placing a wager with (or against). Injuries in the NFL are a fact of life and they can be one of the most disruptive factors for any team’s success. Injury updates are made available on a fairly regular basis but you’ll have to do a bit of educated guesswork in this regard. For example, if a player has had a nagging injury and been consistently listed as “questionable to play” we can reasonably expect that even if they play they will be at a diminished skill/ability level. As well, we need to determine how important particular players are within their team and its overall game plan. Can a team make minor adjustments if a specific player is sidelined or do they have to change the entire way they run their offence/defense?
#4 Why Past Results?
After knowing who a team has beaten in the past and their current injury situation (as well as that of their opposition for a match) we want to know why a team has won or lost in the past. Was a win a complete fluke? Did they play an opposition that was severely undermanned due to injuries? Did they utilize a particular strategy that worked extremely well (or poorly)? Here we’re going beyond the question of what happened into the thoughtful answer of why a particular result occurred. Once we understand why something happened in the past we can get an accurate idea of how likely a similar result is to occur in the future.
#5 Coaching Strategies
Pay attention to what coaches, players, fans and NFL experts are saying. In this area we’re looking for certain strategies that coaches may favor in an upcoming game, what players are looking for and useful tidbits that can give us an edge. With this hint we have to keep in mind of course that coaches and players are always playing gamesmanship, but as we become more experienced we can begin to determine what specific comments mean and how that translates to NFL betting success.
#6 Buy or Sell Points When Advantageous
When betting on the spread, pay particular attention to little details within the NFL betting lines. To create an example for this particular betting tip, if I like a particular NFL team and most NFL betting lines have the spread at -3.5 I may want to “buy off the hook” or take a lower return value for my wager to bet my team at -3. In this way, I can at least get a push on my bet if my team wins by a field goal, rather than losing by the artificial .5 point. Another step in this regard is to buy down a spread that may be listed for example at -3. If I want to tip the odds in my favor I’ll be getting -2.5 and thus win in the case of a field goal difference. For your next wager take a look at how you might think like the NFL betting pros do so that you can put the numbers to your advantage.
Written by Greg Smith